Snapshot of global oil supply and demand: January 2025

Authorby Alpesh Nakrani   Posted Date 2025-02-10

Snapshot of global oil supply and demand: January 2025

January 31, 2025Brent crude oil prices remained relatively steady in December at an average of USD73.9/bbl m-o-m (a slight decline of USD0.5/bbl compared to November average):

  • Global oil demand. Global liquids demand continued to rise in December, increasing by 1.5 MMb/d m-o-m to 104.7 MMb/d. This rise in consumption was partly driven by seasonal colder weather in the Northern Hemisphere, as well as lower fuel prices and abundant petrochemical feedstocks
  • OPEC 9 production (excl. Iran, Venezuela, Libya). OPEC 9’s production remained steady m-o-m at 26.9 MMb/d. The gradual unwinding of OPEC+’s 2.2 MMb/d of production cuts is planned to start from April 2025
  • Non-OPEC production (excl. US shale). Non-OPEC production increased slightly by 0.1 MMb/d m-o-m to 61.9 MMb/d. Production gains in Canada and the US GoM offset declines elsewhere including Brazil and China
  • US shale oil production. US shale production has also remained steady m-o-m (and throughout most of 2024) at 8.9 MMb/d. The number of active rigs stood at 565 in December, up 5 units compared to November
  • Iran, Venezuela, Libya production. Combined production levels in Iran, Venezuela, and Libya increased by ~0.1 MMb/d m-om, averaging at 5.6 MMb/d. Production levels have been steadily increasing since September 2024, mainly driven by Libya
  • Commercial inventories.1 Global commercial inventories declined by ~6 million barrels in December, driven by a decline in OECD inventories. Overall, inventories have remained relatively steady at ~4.5 billion barrels over the last four months
  • Market sentiment. Considering 2024 as a whole, the global liquids market was slightly under-supplied with average global liquids production for the year at 102.6 MMb/d (+0.5 MMb/d y-o-y) compared to global average consumption of 102.8 MMb/d (+0.9 MMb/d y-o-y). Looking ahead, production in 2025 is projected to increase given the planned unwinding of OPEC+ cuts and expected growth in non-OPEC production volumes, although geopolitical and economic uncertainties remain